Daily Homicides in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent Under Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Statistics

The typical figure of everyday homicides each month in the country has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to fresh administrative figures. However, security experts have advised that homicide numbers may not point to better countrywide security.

Significant Reduction in Daily Figures

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 homicides a day in November versus roughly 87 when the President began the presidency in September. This data was shared by the director of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we’ve had in these past months is remarkably important,” Sheinbaum stated, noting that the previous month the least amount of murders were documented for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Intense cartel infighting, coupled with the administration's heavily militarised efforts to take on the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent years. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate more than four times greater than the United States. However, murders have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has linked her public safety approach for an apparently more pronounced reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President declared: “There is a strategy, we have tracking of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s security plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Greater cooperation between various authorities.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety experts urged caution that focusing solely on murder numbers to assess the situation of pacification was problematic. This is notably true considering the increase in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be positive information if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide data and say: ‘Oh well, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

According to the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the same timeframe the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer reliable for gauging the situation of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the capacity or the desire to accurately identify and classify remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month means of everyday homicides was also concerning because it could mask days when there were especially elevated levels of killings.

“Using the per-day average renders surges of violence less visible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and November 2025 for serious crimes, per official figures. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

However notwithstanding these measures, Mexico remains plagued by severe bloodshed, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-driven bloodshed. Last month there was a notable murder of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the last year.

A short time after, thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and throughout the country to show their outrage at graft and drug violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a way to create a story of improvement. Politically it’s highly successful, socially it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst said.