A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
