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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature is expected to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would constitute assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is near accepting the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. A key demand centers on Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he concluded.