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PHEVs release nearly five times more global warming emissions than official data indicate, according to a new report.

Growing Discrepancy In Official and Real-World Emissions

Statistics reveals that PHEVs emit just one-fifth less CO₂ than conventional petrol and diesel vehicles, according to research carried out by a advocacy group. That contrasts sharply with laboratory estimates, which suggested a three-quarters decrease in pollution.

Analysts studied data from in-vehicle fuel consumption monitors of eight hundred thousand cars sold in the EU between 2021 and 2023. They found that actual CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times greater than lab estimates, up from three and a half times in 2021.

“Actual emissions are rising, while official emissions are decreasing,” stated a lead analyst involved in the study. “That discrepancy is widening and creates a serious problem. Consequently, PHEVs pollute almost as much as petrol cars.”

Key Reasons Behind the Emissions Gap

Analysts linked the majority of the gap to overestimates of the “utility factor” – the percentage of kilometers driven in electric mode compared to total distance. They determined that just a quarter of driving was completed in EV mode, while lab estimates assumed over four-fifths.

Even, when operating in EV mode, emission levels were well above lab projections. This happened because electric motors were not strong sufficient to function alone, leading to combustion motors burning gasoline for nearly a third of the distance completed in EV mode.

Policy and Economic Implications

Based on calculations, the lowballing of PHEV CO2 output enabled several major carmaker groups to escape over €5bn in fines between 2021 and 2023, by falsely easing adherence with European Union average fleet CO₂ targets.

Furthermore, drivers of PHEVs could pay approximately €500 more per year in running expenses than would be estimated under lab conditions.

“The bold statements that automakers like to make about their PHEV cars are obviously way off the truth,” stated a automotive expert. “Consumers are being duped into thinking that by buying a PHEV, they are helping the environment and saving money. Actually, PHEVs are little improved than standard petrol and diesel vehicles in terms of fuel use, CO₂ production, and running expenses.”

Policy Discussion and Automotive Pressure

Plug-in hybrid vehicles have recently been brought back into political debates as carmakers have pressed the European Union to relax CO₂ standards. A proposed ban on new combustion engine cars in 2035 has faced intense pressure from the car sector and resistance from member states with large automotive industries.

Some high-level politicians have proposed PHEVs as a potential “flexibility” option to include in the regulation.

One external energy economics expert, who was unaffiliated with the research, called the report a “highly valuable contribution” after a long period in which parts of the car industry claimed there was too little information to properly assess real-world emissions.

“These findings show, beyond any doubt, that the gap in official and real-world PHEV fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions is significantly greater than for gasoline or conventional vehicles,” they said. “Any regulatory adjustments concerning PHEVs should be made with extreme caution and considering that evidence.”