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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's long-running campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to put on the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations feared a conference obstructed from the top if his administration managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks say it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, civil society is essential at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.